Is Whoop measuring recovery, or constructing it?
Where measurement ends, interpretation begins, and the score becomes the product.
Field notes on human-state intelligence
Memos
One question a week on products that read people—and what they mean for business. My takes, each with a call I can be wrong about. Feel free to challenge me :)
Does a model of you beat a model of everyone?
Your own data or everyone else’s: which reads you better?
Does a $799 wristband beat a $9B implant?
The cleanest signal versus the easiest one. Which reaches millions?
Oura's S-1: ring company or subscription company?
The answer decides what the IPO is worth.
Eight Sleep: is Autopilot worth the subscription?
Is the monthly fee paying for the AI or the bed?
Can Zone7 predict an injury you've never had?
Teams pay for injury forecasts. Can anyone check them?
Banned at your desk, required in your car
Regulation, not accuracy, decides which markets exist.
Can Dexcom sell a medical device to healthy people?
People with diabetes need it. Everyone else needs a reason.
Does being right pay?
Every product so far, scored on accuracy and revenue.
Can ChatGPT Health win without a device?
The one product that could prove my thesis wrong.
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